What to watch in 2020
On the third day of the year, World War 3 was trending: Things can only get better from here. The killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani set the tone for what will be the most tumultuous year of the Trump presidency. Crises at home and abroad will dominate the news landscape this year. Here are some key areas to watch in 2020.
America vs the world
2020 will be the year in which tensions between the unilateral US and the multilateral EU reach boiling point. France’s planned digital services tax will lead the Trump administration to threaten tariffs on European cars. The Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline has already prompted sanctions with further recriminations to follow once it is completed. The bromance between Presidents Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron is over, and there was never any love lost between Trump and Chancellor Angel Merkel.
The “geopolitical commission” led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could clash with the US over the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, relations with Turkey, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine and handling China. China has increased its economic footprint in Europe and an EU-China summit in Leipzig in June will hope to iron out issues between the two.
America first has encouraged countries to strike out on their own in global affairs, 2020 will test whether the US can still wield influence over allied states in a unilateral system.
No end to the trade wars
If you were hoping that the signing of the Phase One trade deal between the US and China would spell an end to the trade war, prepare to be disappointed. The EU is firmly in the sights of the US, especially following the decision of the WTO to allow the US to sanction Europe for illegal subsidies of Airbus. The digital services tax and Nord Stream 2 will prompt even more sanctions disrupting global trade even further.
A temporary respite in tensions between the US and China will not last if they are unable to overcome the systemic issues in the relationship. Congress will pressure the White House to take action over the persecution of Uighurs, and if China cracks down forcefully on protesters in Hong Kong. North Korean missile tests will further strain cooperation between the US and China if the US moves military assets into East Asia to counter the North Korean threat. Failure to make progress on intellectual property rights will lead to the return of tariffs. The Phase One deal is simply a pause.
War?
Trump abandoned his reticence to use force in conducting a targeted airstrike on a senior Iranian commander. From here, the only possible recourse is dialogue (the likelihood of which decreases by the tweet), and escalation. If it is the latter, the effects will be global in nature and catastrophic in scale. A war in the Middle East would tie in all regional powers and draw Russia, Europe and possibly China (they import large amounts of oil and gas from the region) in too. In addition to the tremendous humanitarian toll that war inevitably leads to: oil prices will spike, inflation will soar, and the global economy will grind to a halt. When elephants tussle, the grass suffers most.
On the other side of the globe, North Korea promised a Christmas gift but never delivered. Kim Jong-Un might be waiting for either the technology to be ready or the right moment to test another nuclear weapon.
The most uncertain election ever
Democracies function on the premise that the loser accepts the validity of the result. This year, that premise is under threat for the first time.
Impeachment, whatever the outcome may be, will leave a bad aftertaste for Republicans and Democrats alike. If convicted, Republicans will think that Democrats used impeachment to undo the 2016 election and will wait to try the same to a Democratic president. If acquitted Democrats will assume that Trump will try to solicit foreign interference in the election to help his candidacy.
If Trump is acquitted and loses in November, he will blame the “deep state”, “mainstream media” and “voter fraud”. If a Democrat loses, they blame outside powers and voter suppression initiatives.
The uncertainty will create a febrile atmosphere enabling foreign powers to spread disinformation, sow discord and spread fear via social media.
2020 will bring uncertainty at home and overseas, with more clashes than resolutions. America first will be accelerated internationally. Election mode Trump will spend much of 2020 campaigning with the same fiery rhetoric he used in 2016 and throughout his presidency.
